Shaw: Quantum Computing is Still Extremely Far from Cracking Bitcoin

Odaily News Shaw posted on the X platform, stating that there is a huge gap between the actual progress of quantum computing and media hype/public perception. Although progress is being made in this field, quantum computers will not be able to achieve their claimed capabilities within the next 40 to 50 years. For hash functions like SHA-256, even applying the most ideal Grover's algorithm can only reduce the search space from 2^256 to 2^128, and 2^128 remains physically impossible to crack.

Shaw pointed out that the most advanced quantum computers today cannot even factor the number 21 into 3 and 7 without knowing the answer in advance. To crack Bitcoin, a quantum computer would need to perform repeated calculations on a live network within minutes. The leap in capability required for this far exceeds the progress from 1950s computers to modern server clusters. Modern cryptography was designed from the outset with future increases in computing power in mind. The current fear or hype surrounding quantum computing lacks factual basis.